Ligue 1 Talk

The question has been asked for many years…”who is France’s most popular team?”

If you ask the average Ligue 1 fan, most would say their own team. If you ask others, the might say Marseille and St. Etienne. Some people have no clue whatsoever.

As a political consultant myself who deals primarily with numbers, and who has been getting into polling recently, I had to take a look at the poll conducted by Ifop, a French polling firm that usually looks into political polling. In July, they had conducted a poll for French newspaper Sud Ouest. And, if you follow Ligue 1, you might know about this poll already. And since I am a political consultant, this analysis of the poll might be long. Just a warning!

The poll was conducted on July 30th and 31st of 2009. Ifop interviewed 966 people, which should give the poll around a 3% margin or error.

The poll concluded that Marseille was the most popular team in France. 20% of respondents said that they supported L’OM, down 2% from 2004. The second most popular team is Paris St. Germain, with 11% support, the same as 2004.

Lyon followed with 11% as well, dropping six points from the 2007 poll, where they were at the height of their success.

And Bordeaux remained 4th, moving up only 3% from 2007 to finish at 10% this year. Les Girondins where the fastest moving club on the list, and are nipping at the toes of Lyon and PSG.

The the idea that St. Etienne is one of the most popular teams in France has been proved a myth by the Ifop polls conducted in the last five years. St. Etienne did finish 5th, but with only 4% of respondents saying they support Les Verts.

The teams that have fallen the most off as far as support are Monaco and Auxerre, who have gone from 5% in the past to only 1% in the latest poll. Maybe their recent form will help them move up yet again.

2% of respondents said they supported another team, down from 10% in 2004. 23% did not respond, down from 30% in 2004 as well.

So, all those numbers are nice and fine, but ‘who’ are the supporters of these teams.

Women respondents mostly support Marseille. 22% of women support L’OM, a 3% difference from men, who were only 19%. PSG were pretty even between male and female supporters. Lyon and Bordeaux, on the other hand, had a large discrepancy between male and female supporters. Both clubs scored much higher with male respondents with 6% gap for Lyon and a 9% gap for Bordeaux.

The youth also supports Marseille as well. Those who were 35 years old and younger supported Marseille, with 23% of the poll. The second highest team was Lyon, followed by PSG and Bordeaux. St. Etienne, on the other hand, only had 1% of the youth support, which might spell a shift in their support base. They don’t seem to be able to keep youths interested in the club, which might affect their future. Rennes had %5 while Lille had 4%, which might help their club in the future.

Another interesting fact was the geographical location of supporters. PSG only garnered 25% of support within Metropolitan Paris region. Marseille had the support of 14% of Parisians. 32% of Parisians didn’t have a favorite team or didn’t really follow football. This is the highest number of any region, which suggests that Paris is still a rugby-first city.

In the northeast section of the country, Marseille is still the top team with 22% of respondents. Lens gained 13% of northeastern support while Lille was only able to get 5%, which is highly disappointing.

In the northwest, an area that seems to be more of a Ligue 2 area than Ligue 1 now, Marseille was, again, the top team with 18% of respondents supporting Marseille. PSG and Bordeaux are not far behind though.

In the southwest, Bordeaux is the most dominant team with 34% of respondents supporting the club. 17% support L’OM while Toulouse is 3rd place with 9% of support in the southwest.

In the southeast, home of Marseille and Lyon, 30% of its residents support L’OM while 17% support Lyon. St. Etienne, which many have argued is the most popular team in France, was only able to get 12% of support in its own region.

And, because this is a poll, there has to be a political question involved. So, which party members support which team?

Supporters on the left, who support the Parti Socialist, Communist Party and a number of other socialist and communist parties, support Marseille with 22% of respondents. Bordeaux was second with 11% and Lyon third with 10%. Specifically, Marseille dominates in the Parti Socialist, France’s second largest political party, with 27% of PS support.

In the center, which includes Francois Bayrou’s Democratic Movement Party, Lyon was the team favored with 14% support. L’OM was at 13% while PSG had 9%, which is as much as their support on the left.

On the right, L’OM again leads the way with 20% of the votes. 16% of respondents support PSG while Lyon is at 13%. Supports of the UMP (Sarkozy and Chirac’s party) spread their support. Marseille hs 18% of UMP support, while PSG and Lyon were at 14%. Bordeaux was at 11%

Supporters of the Front National, lead by holocaust-denialist (if that is even a word…well, it is now) Jean-Marie Le Pen, support L’OM with 25% of support. PSG was second with 20% of support. Then the support drops with Lyon 3rd with 12%, and everyone else is in the single digits.

So, with all the numbers, what does this mean? I will use my ‘political expertises’ to figure it out.

First of all, France, like England, is a “Big Four” country. While the teams in Ligue 1 might be better from top to bottom compared to the EPL, the support base is very similar to England. No other teams in this poll show that they can really make an impact on the top four.

Second, if you are one of those teams with moderate support, it is easy to lose it. Monaco is a great example. While the poll doesn’t have data on support in the 1990s, one would have to assume that Monaco and St. Etienne had to be up there. But with Monaco at 1%, their fan base has all but disappeared.

Third. Of the top teams, only three of them are able to transend political lines. Marseille, Lyon and Bordeaux seems to have a good distribution of support from every part of the political spectrum. Paris St-Germain, on the other hand, seems to have a lot more right-wing support, especially from the ultra-conservative FN.

Geographically, Marseille is the only team that is marketable nationwide. They are able to enjoy support in all regions of France. PSG and Bordeaux, on the other hand, seems to be regional teams, especially with the latter. Bordeaux’s support is mostly entirely in  the southwest.

Overall, it is easy. Marseille is the most popular team in France. They have support everywhere in the country. No matter the political party, L’OM has support. Basically, they are easily the most popular team. Even with Lyon’s seven championships in a row and Bordeaux winning last year, Marseille is still the team to beat.

And the misconception of St. Etienne being the most popular team in France is exactly that, a misconception. They are 5th, but way behind the top four.

Here is the polling data from ifop (in French);

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/916-1-study_file.pdf

Filed under: AS Saint-Etienne, Girondins de Bordeaux, Olympique Lyonnais, Olympique Marseille, Paris Saint Germain Tagged: | Bordeaux, Ifop Poll, Lens, LOSC Lille, Lyon, Olympique Marseille, Paris St-Germain, St. Etienne, Toulouse FC