Ligue 1 Talk

I have been working on some kind of official formula that indicates how much of a negative effect Raymond Domenech has on the French National Team in each match. I have based our expectations on the FIFA Rankings:

1	Brazil	1632	0		28
2	Spain	1629	0		41
3	Netherlands	1340	0		-36
4	Italy	1215	0		29
5	Germany	1161	-1		-25
6	Argentina	1103	2		-10
7	England	1101	0		-26
8	Croatia	1087	1		-14
9	France	1049	1		9
10	Portugal	1042	7		162
11	USA	1025	0		51
12	Russia	982	-6		-147
13	Switzerland	961	2		63
14	Cameroon	949	15		130
15	Czech Republic	928	3		58
16	Greece	921	-4		-50
17	Chile	909	4		63
18	Mexico	904	6		69
19	Côte d’Ivoire	903	1		51
20	Serbia	892	-7		-24

Basically, I would expect that France be able to draw with the teams that are within two places above or below them (7th to 11th place), that they would lose by a goal to the sides between 6th and 1st places, and would win by a goal against all teams from 11th to 20th place. They should be able to beat the sides from 20th to 50th lace by two goals, and all those lower than that by 3 goals or more. I know the FIFA rankings are flawed, but these are some simple expectations.

With Raymond Domenech in charge, it is perfectly clear that France do not meet their expectations. Here are some simple numbers to help us predict the U.I.D. (Under the Influence of Domenech) results.

• Against top 5 sides, we will concede an extra 2.5 goals on average (we will lose by 3-4 goals instead of 1).
• The teams from 6th to 10th place will score an extra 1.25 goals on average against us (we will lose by one goal–75%–or two goals–25%–instead of a draw).
• We will score one less goal against teams from 11th to 20th place (resulting in draws instead of one goal victories).
• We will score 1.25 fewer goals against teams from 20th-50th place (resulting in 1 goal wins or occasional draws instead of two goal victories).
• We will score 1.5 goals less against teams 50th place and below.

So, that means without Domenech we would have beaten Ireland 2-0 or 3-0, which seems pretty realistic. Ireland are in 34th place, so we add 1.25 goals to that (1+1.25=2.25–a two or three goal victory).

You can use these theories to discover what might have been had astrology not been the deciding factor for the sélectionneur since 2004.

Filed under: French National Team Tagged: | France, French National Team, Raymond Domenech, The Domenech Formula